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  • Exploring the Dual Realities of Digital Nomad Visas in Europe: Empowering Global Mobility or Fueling Inequality?

    Exploring the Dual Realities of Digital Nomad Visas in Europe: Empowering Global Mobility or Fueling Inequality?

    An article written by Patricia Casaburi IMCM, Managing Director, Global Citizen Solutions

    Many countries across Europe faced severe economic hardships as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Coupled with a shift in the way we work – with an increasing number of people working remotely – it led many countries to introduce some sort of Digital Nomad Visa as a means to bolster their economies and cater to this change. While this has provided key economic benefits to host countries, there are also important repercussions to consider.

    The rise of the Digital Nomad Visa regulation comes coincidentally (or not, if you do not believe in coincidences) with some European countries announcing changes or the complete extinction of investment visas, the so-called Golden Visas. Ireland and the UK have closed their doors to investment visa schemes.

    Irish minister Simon Harris said in a statement issued in February this year that the decision to close the scheme had taken into account studies by international bodies such as the European Commission, which last year called on EU governments to end national programs to facilitate ecitizenship to investors, which it has long considered a security risk.

    Portugal has recently also announced the intention to end its Golden Visa program, although it remains unclear in which terms it will be terminated or if it will end at all since it is still due to be voted on in Parliament.

    Portugal is a good example of this digital nomad trend. Launched in October 2022, the country has approved 200 digital nomad visas. The majority of applications have come from Brazil, the UK, and the USA, according to the country’s Ministry of Affairs.

    To qualify, applicants must earn at least €2,800 per month – four times Portugal’s minimum wage. While it has never been easier for remote workers to cross borders and work from anywhere, I´d like to delve into the pros and cons for both the host countries and the applicants.

    How Digital Nomad Visas Benefit Host Countries and Nomads Alike

    Firstly – and probably most obviously – countries that offer a Digital Nomad Visa – or some form of remote working or freelance visa – benefit from an economic viewpoint. Particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, where there was restricted mobility, coupled with existing visa backlog, digital nomad visas are a good response to attract much-needed capital and talent to European countries.

    For example, host countries can benefit from bringing life to rural cities and parts of the country. Take Andalucia in Spain, for example, which has excellent connectivity, good Wifi, and, in some cases, subsidized living and workspace, making it an appealing prospect for digital nomads looking for a charming village with stunning mountainside landscapes to work from.

    Secondly, the flow of digital nomads to Europe can act as a catalyst for knowledge sharing between regions, which is a win-win for both the applicant and their host country. This also goes hand-in-hand with the fact that digital nomads can help foster businesses and entrepreneurship and be a source of creativity and inspiration. Foreign entrepreneurs sharing ideas and working in a shared space, even just for a short period of time, can actively promote new connections and enterprise.

    And what do digital nomads get out of this visa type? The most obvious and close example is in England. A new generation of UK workers was banned from moving to continental Europe after Brexit. In their case, a Digital Nomad Visa scheme brings the opportunity to work from Spain or Portugal (or any other country offering such a visa. Another big drive for digital nomads is to lower the cost of living, when moving from expensive cities like London, New York City, L.A, for example.

    Not only Brits, but remote workers, in general, can experience living in another country and discover a new culture and language – perhaps they will even end up staying. For individuals that are up for an adventure, the Digital Nomad Visa makes this possible.

    When the Hype Fades: What are the Disadvantages of Digital Nomad Visas in Europe?

    This article aims for a  balanced point of view at the nuances of the digital nomadism trend. We’ve heard the buzz about countries now offering some form of Digital Nomad Visa, but adverse effects are somewhat overlooked. Opening the gates and allowing digital nomads to work in the country can lead to some issues that may not, at first, be so apparent.

    Firstly, an influx of foreigners can increase local costs and boost rental prices. Particularly if expats are on higher paid salaries and have more spending money, they will have a greater purchasing power in countries where the average salary may be lower. For example, rental agencies and landlords may see this as an opportunity to make some extra cash and choose instead to up the prices to cater to this growing market.

    There can also be legal issues in some cases and issues with paying taxes, not to mention the problematic grey zone concerning where digital nomads need to pay taxes and social security,  and whether they have access to key services, such as healthcare benefits.

    The Digital Nomad Visa is evidence that Portugal wants to remain open for business for expats and foreigners while likely ending the popular residency by investment scheme (Golden Visa) to respond to various concerns in the scope of housing policy. It is unlikely that remote workers will inflate the buying house market, but it will definitely have an impact on the rental market and the general rise of area gentrification. 

    Undoubtedly, Digital Nomad visas make cross-border living much more possible, bringing benefits to host countries and applicants alike. This visa type certainly does its best to fill the considerable, emerging gap in the market – those wanting to work from anywhere – making it possible for individuals to boost their work-life balance and experience new cultures.

    For host countries, knowledge sharing between cultures has always been an important cornerstone in fostering innovation and collaboration, indicating that, alongside the obvious economic boost, there are other important advantages for countries to adopt some type of Digital Nomad Visa.

    However, with this said, it is important to address the potential adverse effects of digital nomads – the economic consequences on local people, such as increased rental costs and cost of living. It is important to ensure that the Digital Nomad Visa does not become a double-edged sword and cause more harm than good.

  • Overview and trends of migration for Russians in light of the global paradigm in 2023

    Overview and trends of migration for Russians in light of the global paradigm in 2023

    An article written by Irina Valek IMCM, CEO, Quazarhouses

    Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and choice of residence within the borders of each state. Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country – says one of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights articles.

    Is this true in Russia in 2023, and what trends are emerging?

    Migration processes in Russia underwent severe changes in 2022. Russia ranked ninth instead of fourth place among the most populous country in the world. According to UN Population Prospects, by 2100, the number of Russians will decrease to 112.2 million, reducing the country to 20th place in the ranking by population. One reason for this process is a decrease in the flow of migrants and expats into the country with a simultaneous increase in the number of Russians leaving the country.

    In 2023, Russia is expected to maintain the trend of negative migration growth. The tense emotional background due to the difficult foreign policy situation and declining living standards, deteriorating economic indicators related to geopolitical processes in the world, economic recessions, and declining social well-being also does not change the situation.

    The leaving of brands and major global manufacturers, the reduction of their production facilities, the closure of representative offices in Russia, non-payment of wages, and job cuts further increase the degree of general tension and a desire to leave in search of safety and stability.

    On a global scale, Russia has not been a popular recipient country for many years, mainly attracting migrants from Central Asia, whose outflow is also significant and is observed for the first time in the last seven years.

    The most significant outflows are noticeable in the CIS countries of Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are the traditional labor donors for Russia.

    Is Russia combating the outflow of the labor force and population? If yes, how?

    According to quotas, in 2023, Russia plans to attract more than 120 thousand foreign workers, mostly in working professions. The country has simplified many bureaucratic procedures while offering a new program for foreign investors to obtain a residence permit for investment.

    Under the terms of the Golden Visa of Russia, from January 11, 2023, foreign investors can obtain a residence permit in Russia to enter and conduct business freely in any region without getting a temporary residence permit. They must invest at least 15 million rubles (aprox. 175,000€) in socially important regional projects or 30 million rubles (aprox. 350,000€) in a Russian company. Investments must be made within three years before applying for a residence permit.

    An alternative is the registration and subsequent possession of a legal entity, which operates in Russia for two years, and pays a year of 4 million rubles (aprox. 50,000€) in taxes.

    It is also possible to buy any kind of Russian real estate under construction or up to two years after its commissioning, its total cadastral value should be more than 25 million rubles. The property must be free of encumbrances, and the foreigner must own it uninterruptedly for a year before filing an application.

    According to the project developers, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, in the first year of the program launch 300-400 foreign investors will take advantage of it, and after three years – no more than 600-650 per year.

    On January 11, 2023, amendments will come into force to simplify the procedure of obtaining a residence permit for foreign citizens who have invested in the Russian Federation, according to the criteria established by the Russian government, as well as their family members (family members of foreign investors include spouses, spouses of children, parents, parent’s spouses, grandparents, and grandchildren).

    Since January 1, 2023, foreign citizens – full-time students – may obtain a temporary residence permit in Russia for their studies without a quota, which enables foreign students to obtain the status of foreign nationals temporarily residing in the Russian Federation during their studies.

    After receiving a diploma of higher education within three years, a foreigner with a residence permit can apply for a permanent residence permit.

    Significant preferences are offered to IT specialists. Foreigners with professions in this area became easier to get a job in Russia, as now they do not need a patent or a work permit, and the employer does not need to obtain permission to attract and use foreign workers.

    In 2023, Russian authorities proposed several changes to simplify the entry and stay of foreign citizens in the country. In addition, the Ministry of Economy of Russia plans to relaunch the electronic visa to make travel to Russia more accessible and attractive to foreigners. There are also other planned changes concerning the term of visa-free stay in the country. Previously, foreigners could stay in Russia for up to 90 days within six months, but now they plan to increase this period to one year and introduce a visa fee.

    Starting from March 5, 2023, a permit can be issued if one provides a hotel reservation for at least six months, which is especially suitable for independent tourists.

    In addition, it is planned to launch a “Tourist Card”. Under this program, a foreign citizen, regardless of the country of residence, friendly or unfriendly, will be able to get a card at the place of his main stay and use it as a payment instrument to book a room from his country and when he comes to Russia.

    The president also instructed to prepare proposals for establishing a visa-free regime for foreigners for tourism, business, and educational purposes, as well as for participation in sports and cultural events.

    There are also other measures. Agreements on visa-free regimes with Mexico and Malaysia, as well as with some island states of the Caribbean (Commonwealth of the Bahamas, Barbados, Republic of Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, and St. Lucia), are being prepared. Visa-free regimes with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Zambia are being considered. The term of visa-free stay of Russians in Hong Kong shall be increased from 14 to 30 days. Russia is also negotiating the establishment of a visa-free regime with the states of the Persian Gulf and Asia.

    Visa-free regime is available for Russians in the following countries: Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Belarus, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Gabon, Georgia, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Israel, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Macao, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritius, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Panama, Philippines, Qatar, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zambia.

    At the same time, some European countries continue to freeze visas temporarily and introduce other migration restrictions for Russians.

    In particular, the changes affected Schengen visas. The agreement on simplification of short-term visas with Russia from September 12, 2022, was suspended, making it more difficult, expensive, and time-consuming to get visas, mainly for single enty and for specific dates of travel. Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Romania have already suspended the issuance. In October, Russians were denied entry to the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Lithuania, and Poland, even with a valid Schengen visa.

    Now you cannot get a U.S. visa in Russia either, you have to make an appointment for an interview at the U.S. Consulate of another country that accepts applications from non-residents.

    Because of European Commission sanctions, Russians are temporarily unable to participate in some programs for obtaining a residence permit and second investment citizenship.

    The problem has been exacerbated by difficulties in opening bank accounts, which is a requirement for investments under the terms of government programs, and restrictions on currency transfers of up to 100 thousand euros in European banks (the minimum investment required to participate in the resident programs start at 280,000€).

    Since January 2023, the Turkish Migration Board no longer provides preferential treatment to citizens of Russia when applying for a tourist residence permit.

    Issuance of investor long-term visas for Russian citizens was suspended in some countries, including the Czech Republic, Ireland, Latvia, Malta, and Greece. Programs of second citizenship of Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, and from March 31, 2023, Grenada are also temporarily not available for Russian citizens.

    In the UK, the issuance of visas to Russian citizens has not been formally suspended, but there are delays in terms of time. The processing of priority foreign visas has been suspended, the fast-track option has been temporarily frozen, and applications for entry

    clearance have been delayed for all foreign nationals applying from outside the UK (not only for Russians), as the priority has been given to the processing of applications from Ukrainian citizens.

    These trends are compounded by general processing delays due to overburdened immigration systems around the world processing applications, which still cannot cope with the post-pandemic situation of 2020. The wait for many types of visas has become longer for all applicants. The situation has become even tenser because of the significant increase in the number of new asylum seekers in the European Union.

    Speaking of the programs to obtain second citizenship for investment for holders of Russian citizenship, Turkey is still available (returnable investments of 400 thousand U.S. dollars and more),

    Vanuatu is still processing citizenship applications for Russian nationals. The only requirement is that the applicant has a residence outside of Russia and must provide proof of that residence such as a permanent residency card or utility bill for the property.

    The U.S. government’s EB-5 visa investment program is also available to Russian citizens. This program allows one to obtain a residence permit (green card) in the United States and five years later qualify for a

    U.S. passport.

    In Portugal to obtain a Golden Visa will require the purchase of real estate worth 280 thousand euros, at that preferential tax treatment is provided – the income of the investor, obtained outside the country, is not taxed during the first ten years, submitting documents for citizenship is possible after five years. The biggest difficulty of the process in Portugal is opening a bank account for a Russian citizen. This problem is observed almost all over the world.

    Golden visa Spain is available with an investment in real estate of 500 thousand euros.

    In Cyprus, the investment amount to get a permanent residence permit must be at least 300 thousand euros, but its receipt does not give the right to work and run a business in the country.

    Residence permits for financial independence can be obtained in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and a number of other countries. The main requirement is sufficient funds in a bank account.

    The United Kingdom offers a number of affordable migration opportunities, and there are no difficulties in opening an account.

    Residency programs in the UAE have attracted the largest number of Russians. The October 2022 reform introduced new types of visas and changed the requirements for the old ones, which brought the country to the top of our rankings.

    Recently, alternative ways to obtain a residence permit are also becoming visas, such as “digital nomads”, startup visas, relocation through business emigration, and the status of a highly qualified specialist – the list of countries opened to Russians, in this case, is quite extensive.

    A residence permit and a second citizenship in Europe and Great Britain Russian citizens can also still be obtained based on repatriation and naturalization, through marriage and family reunification, work and study, outstanding achievements, and passive income.

    If we talk about further trends, it is difficult to predict the further development of the situation regarding Russian investors. Opportunities depend on the current geopolitical situation. However, one thing is certain: they are still there.

  • Australia: In 2023 thousands of millionaires are migrating to Australia from India and China

    Australia: In 2023 thousands of millionaires are migrating to Australia from India and China

    Source: theaustraliatoday.com.au

    Published: 15 June 2023

    Although the second-biggest loser globally, India’s net exit numbers are predicted to drop to 6,500 in 2023 compared to last year (7,500).

    The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2023 which tracks wealth and investment migration trends worldwide says Australia is expected to attract the highest net inflow of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) in 2023 at 5,200.

    The United Arab Emirates is expected to drop into 2nd place following its record-breaking influx in 2022, it is still expected to enjoy an impressive net arrival of 4,500 new millionaires this year. Singapore ranks 3rd with a net inflow of 3,200 HNWIs, its highest on record, followed by the US with an expected net influx of 2,100 millionaires.

    Switzerland (net inflow of 1,800) and Canada (1,600) are in 5th and 6th place, respectively, with Greece (1,200), France (1,000 — double last year’s net intake of 500 millionaires), Portugal (800), and New Zealand (700) all making it onto this year’s Top 10 list for net HNWI inflows.

    Where are these millionaire migrants coming from

    As it has for the past decade, China continues to lose the largest number of dollar millionaires each year to migration. 

    Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth, explains that “general wealth growth in China has been slowing over the past few years, which means that the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual. China’s economy grew strongly from 2000 to 2017, but wealth and millionaire growth in the country has been negligible since then (when measured in US-dollar terms)”.

    Although the second-biggest loser globally, India’s net exit numbers are predicted to drop to 6,500 in 2023 compared to last year (7,500).

    Mr Amoils points out,

    “These outflows are not particularly concerning as India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration.”

    Commenting on the Report, Sunita Singh-Dalal, Partner, Private Wealth & Family Offices at Hourani adds that “prohibitive tax legislation coupled with convoluted, complex rules relating to outbound remittances that are open to misinterpretation and abuse, are but a few issues that have triggered the trend of investment migration from India”.

    The UK (3,200) and Russia (3000 ­vs 8,500 in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine) sit in 3rd and 4th place respectively, with Brazil (1,200), Hong Kong (SAR China) (1,000 — less than half the actual net outflow in 2022), South Korea (800 — double the net outflow in 2022), Mexico (700), South Africa (500), and Japan (300 compared to last year’s net loss of 100) making up the rest of the Top 10 biggest millionaire losers forecast for 2023.

    Award-winning journalist and Rector of the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, Misha Glenny, says the lessons for those who hope to attract HNWIs are clear.

    “Political stability is the key metric for those selecting where they want to live, together with low taxation regimes and personal freedom. ”

    What are popular investment migration pathways?

    Portugal’s Golden Residence Permit Program remains the most popular overall in 2023, followed by Austria’s citizenship by investment offering and St. Kitts and Nevis’s Citizenship by Investment Program. Next is Canada’s Start-Up Visa Program, the fastest way for entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals to access Canadian residence and the North American market. Rising in popularity this year and last in the top five is Italy’s Residence by Investment Program, with Greece’s Golden Visa Program and Spain’s Residence by Investment Program hot on the heels of their Mediterranean counterpart.

    Dominic Volek, Group Head of Private Clients at Henley & Partners, says historically, many wealthy individuals acquired residence rights or citizenship without moving to those countries.

    “Recent and persistent turmoil has caused a shift — more investors are considering relocating their families for a range of reasons, from safety and security to education and healthcare, to climate change resilience and even crypto-friendliness.”

    “It is important to note that nine of the Top 10 countries for forecast net HNWI inflows in 2023 host formal residence-by-investment programs that encourage foreign direct investment in return for the right to reside, which can also lead to citizenship in some cases. Investors see the clear value of diversifying their domicile portfolios as the ultimate hedge against both regional and global volatility, now and in the future.”

  • St Kitts and Nevis: Michael Martin strives to make CBI programme of St Kitts and Nevis as top choice of HNWIs

    St Kitts and Nevis: Michael Martin strives to make CBI programme of St Kitts and Nevis as top choice of HNWIs

    Source: wicnews.com

    Published: 15 June 2023

    The head of the Citizenship by Investment Programme of St Kitts and Nevis, Michael Martin, is on the path to making the programme more efficient with his leadership skills and better agendas. He has built a strong foundation for business people and local citizens by enhancing the CBI programme so that it could be investors’ top choice.

    The head of the Citizenship by Investment Programme of St Kitts and Nevis, Michael Martin, is on the path to making the programme more efficient with his leadership skills and better agendas. He has built a strong foundation for business people and local citizens by enhancing the CBI programme so that it could be investors’ top choice.

    St Kitts and Nevis‘ CBI programme has always been considered the first and finest of all programmes worldwide, which is why HNWIs (High Net Worth Individuals) have always shown their trust in it as they look for opportunities that will boost their global impact. Also, local citizens want to build their future in a safe and secure environment. CIU head Martin ensures that only legal and trustworthy individuals enter the twin-island nation.

    The country offers several advantages under its CBI programme, including wealth planning, citizenship legacy, portfolio diversification, higher business opportunities, and more. It also helps to build sustainable and modern infrastructure benefitting all citizens.

    Michael Martin has always sought to execute innovative and wise plans for the growth of the Sustainable Growth Fund option of St Kitts and Nevis. He has positioned the SGF as a smart and extraordinary choice for discerning investors.

    As per Martin fund option is an ideal investment choice for investors looking for growth beyond the shores with the expansion of business opportunities. He has worked diligently to boost the sustainable growth fund and make it the future of sustainable investing for global investors.

    The unique plan launched by CIU head Michael Martin was the launch of a Limited Time Offer via which investors can get citizenship in St Kitts and Nevis in just 60 days with a minimum contribution of US$125,000 towards the fund option. LTO is a quick and efficient solution for investors as they will get better returns in exchange for exceptional investments.

    CIU Head has mainly focused on the goals to formulate a solution for the evolution of the citizenship by investment programme based on the sustainable model that is filled with integrity, transparency as well as accountability.

  • United States: Famous Americans Who Gave Up Their US Citizenship

    United States: Famous Americans Who Gave Up Their US Citizenship

    Source: 247wallst.com

    Published: 10 June 2023

    After the Supreme Court overturned the landmark abortion case of Roe v. Wade in June, Green Day lead singer Billie Joe Armstrong told London concertgoers that he was going to renounce his U.S. citizenship and move to England.

    Armstrong is just the latest example of famous Americans who declare that they are leaving the United States for political reasons. Though most get over their pique and stay here, some famous Americans have abandoned their citizenship, for a variety of reasons. (One might be simply that the U.S. is not considered to be among the countries with the most valuable passports.)

    24/7 Tempo has compiled a list of famous people who have renounced their American citizenship by reviewing sources including Tax-ExpatriationBritannica, and PBS.    

    After a record 6,705 Americans renounced their citizenship in 2020, the number dropped to 2,426 last year, though the lower number might be attributed to U.S. embassy closures amid the pandemic. According to a survey of U.S. expatriates in 121 countries from Greenback Expat Tax Services, about one in four American expats is “seriously considering” or “planning” to repudiate their U.S. citizenship. Critics of American tax law say U.S. global income tax compliance and disclosure laws are excessive and oppressive. (These are the countries with the most American expats.)

    Renunciation is time-consuming and expensive. In September 2015, the U.S. State Department raised the fee to renounce U.S. citizenship to $2,350 from $450 to try and deter Americans overseas from rejecting citizenship. 

    Tax avoidance is the main reason actor Yul Brynner, entrepreneur Eduardo Saverin, and inventor Earl Tupper abandoned U.S. citizenship. Author Henry James, film director John Huston, and Eugene O’Neill’s daughter, Oona, stood on political principles to turn down U.S. citizenship. Ascension to a royal title triggered the renouncement of U.S. citizenship for Prince Albert II of Monaco and socialite Betty Hutton. Dancer Josephine Baker so disdained racism in the U.S. that she became a French citizen.

  • Canada: Quebec Immigrant Investor Program Expected to Reopen with Stricter Criteria

    Canada: Quebec Immigrant Investor Program Expected to Reopen with Stricter Criteria

    Source: fragomen.com

    Published: 7 June 2023

    The government of Quebec has published proposed regulations which would overhaul all economic immigration programs in Quebec, including the Quebec Immigrant Investor Program (QIIP). They have also opened a 45-day public consultation period for interested parties to submit their comments on the proposed changes to the QIIP. The QIIP has been suspended since 2019 but is expected to reopen in early 2024 after the Cabinet analyzes public commentary and publishes final regulations. Among the proposed new requirements for applicants are: demonstrating French language proficiency (within the first two years of arriving in Quebec); having at least a secondary school diploma; residing in Quebec for a period of at least six months within the two-year period following their work permit issuance; and making a 5-year-term, risk-free investment of CAD 1 million with IQ Immigrants Investisseurs Inc. and a non-refundable financial contribution of CAD 200,000 to this company through a financial intermediary within 120 days of the acceptance decision. The QIIP remains the only business immigration program in Canada which does not require the applicant’s active involvement in the management of a Canadian business. Applicants must have a net worth of at least CAD 2 million and at least two years of management experience in the five years preceding the application. Applicants and their families are granted temporary stay in Canada for three years (which allows them to work and study in Quebec), after which they can apply for permanent residence in Canada. Fragomen will report on relevant developments.

  • United Kingdom: Immigration can help push down UK inflation, says IMF deputy

    United Kingdom: Immigration can help push down UK inflation, says IMF deputy

    Source: bbc.com

    Published: 6 June 2023

    Immigration that fills gaps in the domestic jobs market can help push down UK inflation, the deputy head of the International Monetary Fund has said.

    The prime minister has said rates of legal immigration are “too high”.

    Yet the IMF’s Gita Gopinath told BBC Newsnight that “with inflation as high as it is… there are benefits to having workers come in”.

    The government said the immigration system could “flex to the needs of the economy”.

    Net migration – the difference between the number of people entering the country and those leaving on a long-term basis – is at a record level in the UK, at 606,000 in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.

    Meanwhile, UK headline inflation fell to 8.7% year-on-year in April, but core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose to 6.8%, the highest in the G7.

    “In this context, with inflation as high as it is, having workers who can fill the shortages in some of the sectors that we’re seeing right now will help with bringing inflation down,” Ms Gopinath, the deputy managing director of the IMF, said.

    “So I think there are benefits to having workers come in.”

    The latest official statistics showed the UK still had more than one million vacancies in the three months to April 2023.

    The industries with the highest vacancy ratios were accommodation and food (5.5%), health and social work (4.5%) and professional scientific jobs (4%).

    Economists have identified the UK’s tight labour market, exacerbated by the impact of Brexit on flows of European Union workers and the impact of the Covid pandemic, as one of the main contributory factors to high domestic inflation.

    April’s higher-than-expected inflation rates led many to predict the Bank of England will raise interest rates higher than previously thought, from their current 4.5% to above 5%.

    But Ms Gopinath downplayed the idea that the UK has considerably worse core inflation than other developed economies.

    “I wouldn’t make a big difference between small differences in numbers in core inflation,” she said.

    Brexit effect

    Ms Gopinath also told Newsnight that the IMF stood by its 2018 forecast that Brexit would reduce the long-term growth potential of the UK economy by 2.5% to 4% of GDP, equivalent to £900 to £1,300 per person.

    “We put that estimate out around 2018 and we haven’t done an update since then for the reason that we’ve had the pandemic and that we’ve had many other shocks,” she said.

    “So just identifying how much is purely Brexit becomes much harder to do. But if you look at the more recent estimates by the Bank of England and others, this is in the ballpark.

    “Investment has been weaker since 2016, labour market flexibility has come down and the intensity of trade of the UK with the EU has come down. So all of these factors are in line with a weakening economy.”

    In a statement the Treasury said the UK had “moved away from the old model of unlimited, unskilled migration”.

    “We now have a points-based immigration system, giving the British people full control of the country’s borders, which is designed to flex to the needs of the economy to ensure we have the skills we need.

    “We want businesses to invest in our domestic workforce to fill labour shortages, but where there’s an acute need for staff, we have also been flexible, including putting care homes and the seafood industry on the shortage occupation list,” a spokesperson said.

  • Canada: Fmr Immigration Min Weiner Leads JIFORM Summit On Migration Investment

    Canada: Fmr Immigration Min Weiner Leads JIFORM Summit On Migration Investment

    Source: theheritagetimes.com

    Published: 4 June 2023

    Former Minister of Immigration, Citizenship, and Secretary of State of Canada, Hon Gerry Weiner will lead arrays of speakers at the 4th Journalists International Forum For Migration (JIFORM) Global Migration summit slated for Toronto, Canada between October 2-14.

    The hybrid summit to accommodate both virtual and physical participation would focus on Climate Change, Human Mobility, and Sustainable Investment with participants being drawn from the media, business community, migrant, immigration and judicial workers, government workers and other professionals.

    Declaring support for the summit, Weiner said he looked forward to receiving participants at the event adding that “I have been a participant at some of JIFORM events in recent times and this would not be an exception”.

    The JIFORM annual conference is targeted at capacity building and networking for journalists and various stakeholders on migration dynamics and issues.

    A statement by the President of the JIFORM, Dr Ajibola Abayomi confirmed that invitations had also been extended to the African Union Labour Migration Advisory Committee, Dr Princess Kabuki Asie Ocansey, United Nations Non-Governmental Organization, First Fridays Toronto and Canada- Africa Chamber of Business.

    Other invites are Professor Byron Price of the Medgars Evers College, City University, New York, USA; Ms Philomena Gnanapragasam, the Director, Asia-Pacific Institute for Broadcasting Development (AIBD) and Ms. Phelisa Nkomo from South Africa.

    JIFORM is a non-profit body comprising over 300 journalists and other volunteers across the continents covering migration matters.

    Since 2019, the organization has organized a series of local and international capacity-building for journalists and other stakeholders. In 2021, it initiated the annual African Migration Summit held in Ghana in partnership with Nekotech Center of Excellence, Accra, the West African Media Migration Summit in Lome Togo and held its 3rd Global Migration Summit in Toronto, Canada in October 2022.

    The body in collaboration with the City University, New York City, US between November 2-4, in Brooklyn hosted an intercontinental migration summit.

  • World: A new wave of mass migration has begun

    World: A new wave of mass migration has begun

    Source: economist.com

    Published: 28 May 2023

    Last year 1.2m people moved to Britain—almost certainly the most ever. Net migration (ie, immigrants minus emigrants) to Australia is currently twice the rate before the covid-19 pandemic. Spain’s equivalent figure recently hit an all-time high. Nearly 1.4m people on net are expected to move to America this year, one-third more than before the pandemic. In 2022 net migration to Canada was more than double the previous record. In Germany it was even higher than during the “migration crisis” of 2015. The rich world as a whole is in the middle of an unprecedented migration boom. Its foreign-born population is rising faster than at any point in history.

    What does this mean for the global economy? Not long ago it seemed as if many wealthy countries had turned decisively against mass migration. In 2016 Britons voted for Brexit and then Americans for Donald Trump—both political projects had a strong anti-migrant streak. In the global wave of populism that followed, politicians from Australia to Hungary promised to crack down on migration. Then covid closed borders. Migration came to a standstill, or even went into reverse, as people decided to return home. Between 2019 and 2021 the populations of Kuwait and Singapore, countries that typically receive lots of migrants, fell by 4%. In 2021 the number of emigrants from Australia exceeded the number of immigrants to the country for the first time since the 1940s.

    In some places the surge in migration has brought back a sense of normality. Singapore’s foreign workforce recently returned to its pre-pandemic level. In other places it feels like a drastic change. Consider Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada’s second-smallest province by population. Long home to people of Irish-Catholic descent—with accents to match—net migration to the province is running at more than 20 times the pre-pandemic norm. St John’s, the capital, once fairly homogeneous, feels more like Toronto every time you visit. Heart’s Delight, a small rural village, now has a Ukrainian bakery, Borsch. The provincial government is setting up an office in Bangalore to help recruit nurses.

    The new arrivals in Newfoundland are a microcosm of those elsewhere in the rich world. Many hundreds of Ukrainians have arrived on the island—a tiny share of the millions who have left the country since Russia invaded. Indians and Nigerians also appear to be on the move in large numbers. Many speak English. And many already have familial connections in richer countries, in particular Britain and Canada.

    Some of the surge in migration is because people are making up for lost time. Many migrants acquired visas in 2020 or 2021, but only made the trip once covid restrictions loosened. Yet the rich world’s foreign-born population—at well over 100m—is now above its pre-crisis trend, suggesting something else is going on.

    The nature of the post-pandemic economy is a big part of the explanation. Unemployment in the rich world, at 4.8%, has not been so low in decades. Bosses are desperate for staff, with vacancies near an all-time high. People from abroad thus have good reason to travel. Currency movements may be another factor. A British pound buys more than 100 Indian rupees, compared with 90 in 2019. Since the beginning of 2021 the average emerging-market currency has depreciated by about 4% against the dollar. This enables migrants to send more money home than before.

    Many governments are also trying to attract more people. Canada has an explicit target to welcome 1.5m new residents in 2023-25. Germany and India recently signed an agreement to allow more Indians to work and study in Germany. Australia is increasing the time period some students can work after graduating from two to four years. Britain has welcomed Hong Kongers looking to flee Chinese oppression—well over 100,000 have arrived. Many countries have made it easy for Ukrainians to enter. Even those countries hitherto hostile to migration, including Japan and South Korea, are looking more favourably on outsiders as they seek to counteract the impact of ageing populations.

    Economies that welcome lots of migrants tend to benefit in the long run. Just look at America. Foreign folk bring new ideas with them. In America immigrants are about 80% likelier than native-born folk to found a firm, according to a recent paper by Pierre Azoulay of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues. Research suggests that migrants also help to build trading and investment links between their home country and the receiving one. A slug of young workers also helps generate more tax revenue.

    Your people shall be my people

    Some economists also hope that the wave of migration will have more immediate benefits. “High immigration is helpful for the Fed as it tries to cool down the labour market and slow down inflation,” says Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management, an asset manager, expressing a common view. Such arguments may be a little too optimistic. Having more people does increase the supply of labour, which all else equal reduces wage growth. But the effect is pretty small. There is little sign that the countries receiving the most migrants have the loosest labour markets. In Canada, for instance, pay is still rising by about 5% year on year.

    Migrants also increase demand for goods and services, which can raise inflation. In Britain new arrivals appear to be pushing up rents in London, which already had a constrained supply of housing. A similar effect is noticeable in Australia. Estimates published by Goldman Sachs, a bank, imply that Australia’s current annualised net migration rate of 500,000 people is raising rents by around 5%. Higher rents feed into a higher overall consumer-price index. Demand from migrants may also explain why, despite higher mortgage rates, house prices in many rich countries have not fallen by much.

    Over the next year or so migration may come down a bit. The post-pandemic “catch-up” will end; rich-world labour markets are slowly loosening. Yet there is reason to believe that historically high levels of new arrivals will remain raised for some time. More welcoming government policy is one factor. More important, migration today begets migration tomorrow, as new arrivals bring over children and partners. Before long the rich world’s anti-immigrant turn of the late 2010s will seem like an aberration. 

  • Grenada: IMF Mission to Grenada Concluding Statement of the 2023 Article IV Mission

    Grenada: IMF Mission to Grenada Concluding Statement of the 2023 Article IV Mission

    Source: imf.org

    Published: 26 May 2023

    Grenada is navigating the recovery from the twin shocks of the pandemic and a rise in energy and food prices. The authorities’ decisive policy response—supported by the policy space that was created from past fiscal prudence—provided space to cushion the impact of these shocks. As the recovery takes hold, the immediate policy priorities are to return to the fiscal rules to preserve credibility and to deepen structural reforms to promote robust, inclusive, and sustainable growth. Enhancing the fiscal framework and increasing public expenditure efficiency will help create fiscal buffers against future shocks and make space for the country’s development and resilience building needs. Measures to increase competitiveness, such as promoting gender equality, investing in skills development, and expanding digitalization, would help boost economic growth.

    The economic recovery is taking hold. Real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 6.4 percent in 2022. Tourism activity has rebounded strongly, with stay-over tourist arrivals reaching 80 percent of their pre-crisis levels, and private and public construction projects also contributed to the growth. There was a sharp fall in agricultural production, however, largely due to adverse weather. Inflation rose modestly to 2.6 percent on average in 2022 despite the surge in global food and energy prices, as the authorities’ policy response, such as the temporary removal of the petrol tax and of the VAT on basic food items, helped dampen the inflation pressure from higher global prices. The fiscal balance excluding interest payments is estimated to have maintained a surplus of 2.6 percent of GDP, while central government and government guaranteed debt declined to 64.6 percent of GDP in 2022. The real economy is projected to continue expanding in 2023, but at a slower pace of 3.9 percent as the tourism recovery matures and public investment scales back from a very high level.

    Important near-term downside risks remain. A key downside risk to the outlook is an economic slowdown of key tourist source markets such as the U.S. and the U.K., especially if global inflation remains high and global financial conditions continue tightening. High import costs for construction materials could weigh on activity in the sector, while a renewed upswing in commodity prices would drag on growth and weaken the fiscal position. Grenada also remains highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected tourism activity, larger domestic spillovers from public investment projects, the implementation of reforms to improve competitiveness, and an accelerated transition to renewable energy.

    Enhancing the Fiscal Framework

    Supporting the vulnerable more effectively and efficiently. Fiscal relief measures have helped mitigate the impact of rising living costs on households. As the initial food and fuel price spike dissipates and the economy continues to recover, price controls on petroleum products and the reduction in the petroleum tax should be rolled back gradually. Continued focus must be on improving the effectiveness and targeting of social assistance programs. This can include improving the determination of eligibility, strengthening the central beneficiary management system, and moving to cashless payments. Any saving as a result should be used to increase transfers to the vulnerable.

    Upgrading the fiscal framework. The 2023 budget appropriately commits to returning to the fiscal rules to preserve the hard-earned credibility. Maintaining the framework’s current focus on debt reduction will continue to underpin debt sustainability. The planned amendment of the Fiscal Responsibility Framework should simplify the fiscal rules and make the medium‑term fiscal framework more effective as a forward guidance to the annual budget exercises. To enhance the oversight of the government’s fiscal management, the Fiscal Responsibility Oversight Committee can carry out additional tasks such as evaluating the government’s macroeconomic assumptions and providing assessments of fiscal risks. Greater clarity is needed for how fast debt should return to the medium-term path following a shock.

    Making the government more efficient. The efficiency of the tax system can be improved through an update to the tax incentive framework and increased risk-based internal auditing of the customs administration. Public investment management should be strengthened to increase the efficiency of public spending. The focus should be on improving the implementation rate of projects, increasing project oversight, and strengthening the transparency and accountability of the procurement system.

    Improving the sustainability of public finances. Reforms to the National Insurance Scheme through phased increases in the contributory rate and pensionable age will help improve its financial position and should be implemented robustly. There is an urgent need to establish one new pension scheme—that ensures the sustainability of the pension system—for new entrants to the public service. The ongoing regularization of public sector workers should be guided by a thorough review of job functionality. A comprehensive wage review is needed to ensure the wage grid reflects current labor market conditions.

    Safeguarding Financial Stability

    Financial stability risks are moderate amid the tightening of global financial conditions. Bank loans remain sluggish, due to the scarcity of profitable projects and lingering economic uncertainty. Asset quality has deteriorated because of the hardship from the pandemic, notably in credit unions whose nonperforming loans have risen to 8.4 percent of total loans. While banks have recognized more than 60 percent of their nonperforming loans, credit unions have done much less. The level of liquid assets (relative to total assets) remains high in banks but has declined somewhat among credit unions.

    The regulation and supervision of credit unions should be strengthened. Despite being smaller than banks in asset size, credit unions have grown rapidly and are critical to financial inclusion. The recent increase in nonperforming loans necessitates credit unions to recognize loan losses, devise a strategy to reduce legacy nonperforming loans, and bolster their risk management practices. Achieving an effective risk-based and forward-looking supervisory approach by GARFIN, the regulator for nonbank financial institutions, would boost confidence in the soundness of credit unions and allow for risks to be detected and addressed at an early stage. Such an approach requires more granular information, better analytical capacity, and well-designed stress testing.

    Efforts are needed to improve the financial intermediation. The financial literacy of the public can be increased through school curricula and community outreach. Financial institutions should be encouraged to leverage the regional credit bureau, once it comes into operation, that will help them know better the credit history of their borrowers. To facilitate smaller firms’ access to finance, training can be provided on developing a business plan and preparing financial statements. The authorities should continue strengthening the anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework and the vetting and approval process used for the Citizenship-by-Investment program.

    Enhancing Competitiveness and Building Resilience

    Grenada should increase the domestic value-added of tourism, promote gender equality, and improve labor skills. Strengthening linkages with agriculture and fisheries will help increase the domestic value-added of tourism. Measures to boost agricultural productivity and build resilience to adverse weather events will be critical to securing future production. Efforts are needed to expand digitalization, address the identified gender gaps, and incentivize female labor force participation. Training and apprenticeship programs should focus on increasing technical and entrepreneurial skills, better integrating academic institutions and employers, as well as facilitating the transition to employment.

    The resolute implementation of Grenada’s Disaster Resilience Strategy should remain a key priority. The government has made progress in the implementation of the Strategy. Regulations should be updated following the recent approval of the National Disaster Management Bill (2023), which can improve policy response to disasters and strengthen the technical and operational capacity of the National Disaster Management Agency.

    Grenada can reduce its carbon emissions and strengthen its external position by transitioning to renewables and investing in energy conservation. The smooth absorption of renewable energy can be assisted by the recently approved National Energy Policy and Grenada Electricity Sector Grid Code. Continued improvement of the regulatory environment will help incentivize and accelerate investments in renewables and climate adaptation. Concessional financing from multilaterals and climate funds can help catalyze private financing for these investments. Greater awareness building about the environmental impact of drilling for geothermal generation would help foster public support and attract private capital.

    Data Issues

    Continued improvement of data collection would support evidence-based policymaking. The publication of the 2022 census and the resumption of the labor force survey will help the assessment of social and economic development. Transparency should be enhanced by the timely publication of public sector and SOE audited financial statements as well as CBI flows and their usage. The collection and dissemination of high frequency indicators would improve the accurate recording of data. Institutional strengthening of the Central Statistics Office (including appointing a new Director) should be a priority.

    ****

    The IMF mission team thanks the Grenadian authorities and other counterparts for their warm hospitality and constructive discussions.

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