Author: Niu Ltd

To access the data sheet on the Portugal’s Golden Residence Programme (GRP) results as of the 31^st December 2017,  please click here

On May 12, 2017, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation^[1] with Dominica, and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting^[2].

The recovery from Tropical Storm Erika (August 2015) has been slower than anticipated, with output growth of 1 percent in 2016, dragged down by a storm-related decline in manufacturing.  Moreover, capacity constraints and unfavorable weather slowed public investment more than anticipated. Despite ample liquidity, bank credit to the private sector remains weak, although this is in part relieved by growing lending by credit unions.

Growth is projected to accelerate to above 3 percent in 2017-18 on the back of a pickup in public investment and several large-scale private projects with citizenship-by-investment (CBI) and grant financing, and to stabilize at a potential rate of 1.5 percent over the medium term. The external current account deficit is projected to widen due to the increase in imports of goods and services with the increase in investment, and then to gradually improve as agriculture, tourism and manufacturing recover, and geothermal electricity generation reduces oil imports.

Despite high CBI revenues, the fiscal outlook has deteriorated largely due to lower projected grant revenues, a downward revision in the projected yields of the fiscal consolidation measures, an increase in social transfers and the reduction of the corporate income tax rate in January 2016. As a result, reaching the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030 without increasing the fiscal consolidation effort above the commitments in the RCF disbursement would require the use of government deposits for debt reduction.

Executive Board Assessment^[3]

Economic activity in 2016 was weak, but is expected to pick up this year on the back of public investment and several large-scale private projects now in execution. The recovery from tropical storm Erika has been slower than anticipated, mainly because grants have been much lower than expected and capacity constraints have slowed down the execution of public infrastructure reconstruction efforts. However, most sectors are now on a recovery path, including tourism, agriculture, and construction. Public investment has picked up, with large CBI revenues offsetting the shortfall in grants; and large-scale investment projects in execution are boosting demand in the near term. As a result, growth is projected above 3 percent in 2017 and 2018. However, the outlook remains subject to significant risks, mainly from recurrent natural disasters, delays in reconstruction and public investment affected by capacity constraints and uncertain sources of grant and CBI financing, and natural disasters. Weaknesses in the financial sector will continue to pose risks to financial stability and weigh on credit and growth.

The priorities facing the authorities are to maintain momentum with the reconstruction program while ensuring that the public finances are put on a sustainable footing. The government should continue to focus on implementing the fiscal consolidation plan committed to at the time of the RCF disbursement aimed at reducing debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2030. This adjustment of over 6 percent of GDP includes public wage restraint, reduction of tax incentives, and the gradual unwinding of storm-related spending on reconstruction, goods and services, and social assistance. The increase in CBI revenues, which eases financing pressures in the near-term, should not detract from the resolute implementation of the consolidation plan, which should target reductions in the underlying primary balance (i.e., excluding CBI revenues, grants, and storm-related spending).

Low donor grants and unpredictable CBI revenues require prudence in fiscal management to ensure sufficient financing for reconstruction with fiscal sustainability. It is thus important to avoid the allocation of CBI flows to recurrent spending, which would be relatively difficult to reverse. Rather, the scope to the VF for natural disasters should be broadened to include also a saving sub-fund of CBI resources earmarked for debt reduction and public investment.  Given the several sources of uncertainty, including the sustainability of CBI flows, the government should consider contingent fiscal measures to create fiscal space for reconstruction and further strengthen the fiscal sustainability outlook.

Improving fiscal institutions, in line with recent Fund TA advice, should also be a priority. The budget process should be strengthened to make it the key instrument for medium-term fiscal planning, and the introduction of fiscal rules within a formal fiscal responsibility legal framework could provide a commitment mechanism to support the fiscal consolidation effort. A formal framework to set a limit on tax incentives, and to limit the scope of discretional tax concessions would also be beneficial and could provide additional savings. Given that these reforms are complex, early preparation is crucial for a timely implementation.

Strengthening financial sector institutions is critical to enhance financial stability and facilitating a return to lending by the banks. Further action is needed to clean up bank balance sheets by reducing still-high NPLs and increasing bank capital. Toward this end, the ECAMC should be made operational as soon as possible to facilitate removal of NPLs from bank balance sheets. The government should also seek to eliminate the ECCB’s MSR, which reduces banks’ profitability and delays progress on NPL reduction. Vulnerabilities in the credit union sector, which is systemically important, and suffers from high NPLs and low capitalization, should also be addressed. In particular, the authorities need to move quickly to strengthen supervision and regulatory powers of the FSU and to move ahead with the regional credit union legislation that has been pending for some time. Credit by public financial institutions should be better targeted to address missing or incomplete credit markets, in line with national development objectives. The initiative to establish a credit bureau is welcome, which should facilitate access to credit. Furthermore, a review of the legislation aimed at strengthening the enforcement of loan contracts could counterbalance the increase in banks’ risk aversion in recent years.

Lowering the risk of withdrawal of CBRs is critical to support investment and sustain growth. Notwithstanding the significant progress made to strengthen AML/CFT legislation closer to international standards in recent years, there is still a need to improve enforcement.  The authorities should also encourage respondent and correspondent banks to improve communication and information sharing; remove obstacles for bank consolidation; and encourage banks to explore options for the bundling of financial services.

Beyond the reconstruction efforts, there is a need to improve resilience to future disasters and address constraints that result in low potential growth. Toward this end, the government’s effort to increase the resilience of public infrastructure is commendable and should be sustained; this will also improve the business environment. Moving ahead with plans to develop geothermal energy capacity will lower electricity costs that are among the highest in the world, thereby improving competitiveness. To increase labor productivity and employment, labor market legislation should be updated to remove rigidities in working hours and align severance payments with the needs of a more dynamic labor market.

Incentivizing educational attainment, including in skills for which there is excess demand, would also facilitate labor adaptation across sectors and increase employment. Public wage negotiations should also be mindful of their impact on private sector wages, which affect production costs, investment, employment, and external competitiveness.

Data provision has shortcomings due to capacity constraints in the statistical agency, including weaknesses in coverage, accuracy, frequency, and timeliness of data. Although it is broadly adequate for surveillance, these limitations constrain economic analysis and policy formulation. Specifically, surveillance would benefit from more timely and improved data pertaining to the national and fiscal accounts, labor market, the balance of payments, and credit unions.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

 

Source: imf.org

The second annual Global Migration Film Festival drew to a close in Geneva last night (18/12) on International Migrants Day. Of the 300 films submitted to the Film Festival, The Journey, directed by the filmmaker Matthew Cassel in collaboration with Field of Vision, was awarded first prize in the professional filmmaker category. The six-part documentary explores the dangerous paths Syrian asylum seekers take to get to Europe.

From Guyana in South America to South Sudan in East Africa (and many other places in between) filmmakers from around the globe showcased their skills as cinematographers during the Film Festival. Organized by IOM, the UN Migration Agency, the Festival spanned over 13 days with 30 specially selected films being screened in over 100 different countries across a range of different venues from displacement camps and migrant centres to university campuses and arthouse cinemas.

“Films have the power to illluminate the different facets of life. They can inform, inspire, transform and promote inclusion,” said Laura Thompson, UN Migration Agency Deputy Director General. “For example, in The Deportation of Innocence we see how deportation affects the lives of the children left behind, in In Search of the Riyal we explore the world of Nepali migrants in the Gulf and in When I’m There we get a real sense of the positive contributions of the Moroccan community living in the Netherlands,” said Ambassador Thompson.

The Cambridge Squatter, directed by Eliane Caffé, which follows the trials, tribulations and triumphs of homeless people and refugees living in an abandoned Sao Paolo hotel, took second prize. Sans le Kosovo, directed by Dea Gjinovci, which is a short documentary about the life of a man who fled Kosovo in the late 1960’s, was third. Dem Dem, directed by Marc Recchia, Christophe Rolin and Pape Bouname Lopy was awarded the Le Prix Spécial du Jury.

An important category in the Film Festival was that of emerging filmmakers. In that category, prizes were awarded to It Has Killed My Mother, directed by Amina Rwimo; The Deportation of Innocence, directed by Francisco Alarcón; and La Jerusalem Argentina by Ivan Cherjovsky and Melina Serber.

“Films truly build deeper empathy for migrants and a better understanding of their realities, needs, perspectives and capacities. Our Film Festival uses film as educational tools to influence attitudes towards migrants in a positive way, highlighting their overall contributions to society and the struggles that many face in today’s world on the move,” said Ambassador Thompson.

Special mentions were also given to: Misafir a Guest, directed by Mariam el Marakeshy; The Lucky Specials, directed by Rea Rangaka; and Amerika Square directed by Yannis Sakaridis.

The Festival was made possible through the support of global partners such as DHL, Aware Migrants Campaign funded by the German Government, the IOM Development Fund and PLURAL+.

 

Source: iom.int

Caribbean nations ravaged by recent hurricanes are selling citizenship at dramatically discounted prices in an effort to raise emergency funds, sparking concerns that the programs may be vulnerable to abuse.

Past scandals involving Iranian-born individuals buying St. Kitts and Nevis citizenship to evade sanctions and invest in the U.S. highlight the potential vulnerabilities of citizenship-by-investment programs — which have been branded “passports for sale.” In some cases, those prepared to pay $100,000 or more for citizenship don’t even need to travel to the country before getting the documentation.

Some experts worry the scramble to pay for hurricane-relief efforts could make authorities more inclined to approve would-be citizens and result in laxer vetting practices.

Five Caribbean nations currently offer citizenship in exchange for either a one-off contribution to the nation or an investment in a designated sector, such as real estate. Many of those countries’ passports allow visa-free travel to the European Union.

“It’s fairly clear these programs are being exploited by all sorts of people with something to hide whether that be tax evaders, terror finance operatives, drug cartels or corrupt oligarchs, you name it,” said Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a right-leaning Washington, D.C.-based think tank. “You need cash in hand and it’s a pretty straightforward process which doesn’t take that long.”

Hurricanes Irma and Maria tore through the Caribbean last fall, devastating dozens of islands including several where citizenship-by-investment is an option.

In September, St. Kitts and Nevis set up a “hurricane relief fund” which allows foreigners to contribute $150,000 in exchange for citizenship. The program, which is open until the end of March, is $100,000 cheaper than the country’s previously lowest-priced citizenship-by-investment offer.

Antigua and Barbuda then followed suit, halving its program’s basic contribution from $200,000 to $100,000, according to Ronald Sanders, the country’s ambassador to the U.S.

The island of Grenada also lowered the price of one its routes to citizenship, according to Henley and Partners, a consultancy firm which specializes in citizenship and residency-by-investment.

Saint Lucia and Dominica’s single-applicant investment costs both remained at $100,000.

Peter Vincent, a former Department of Homeland Security official, warned strong background checks carried out on behalf of the Caribbean countries were essential to prevent criminals from obfuscating their true identities and obtaining passports. That could potentially allow them to use the travel documents to get to the United States.

Vincent said that during his time working for the Department of Justice in Colombia he knew that narco-traffickers and members of the FARC guerrilla group were “actively and aggressively” trying to obtain Caribbean passports to evade the law.

“The move to lower prices will undoubtedly decrease the amount of money available to conduct proper due diligence,” Vincent said.

Ottolenghi agreed that the cheaper costs raised questions.

“There is a risk they will cut corners when there is less margin for revenue, potentially spending less on due diligence and investigating each case, making citizenship available to more people who shouldn’t have it.”

Caribbean islands and brokering firms dismissed concerns that the standard of background checks will slip as prices fall, pointing to the fact that there are separate due diligence fees on top of the base cost of citizenship.

“There’s been a big shift recently on the amount of emphasis they [countries] put on due diligence,” said Paul Williams, CEO of La Vida Golden Visas, a citizenship-by-investment consultancy firm.

Williams said he thought vetting was tougher than ever before in the industry. He also clarified that while applicants need to visit Antigua and Barbuda, the other four countries don’t require you to step foot on the island to obtain citizenship-by-investment.

Sanders, the diplomat, said Antigua and Barbuda “strictly adhered” to its vetting system which consisted of four stages, though he cautioned that there was always a chance that someone of “doubtful character” could slip through.

He added that it wasn’t in any country’s interest to sell citizenship to undesirable applicants because it could jeopardize visa-free travel arrangements with other countries — a key selling point of the citizenship program.

“If they were given to people of dubious quality or a criminal nature then the entire program is brought into question,” he said.

 

 

But in June, the Canadian government announced that after assessing the integrity of Antigua and Barbuda’s travel documents, it had decided that the country no longer meets its criteria for visa exemption.

It wasn’t the first time the integrity of Caribbean travel documents has come under fire.

In 2014, St. Kitts and Nevis was pressured to revoke thousands of passports after it was revealed that there was no mention of place of birth or whether the holder had changed their name on the documents — meaning applicants would have the chance to effectively create a new identity.

In February of that year, the Department of Treasury sanctioned three Iranian nationals for evading U.S. sanctions. All three held St. Kitts and Nevis passports, according to Ottolenghi.

Three months later, the U.S. — which offers its own residency-by-investment program starting at $500,000 — issued an official warning to financial institutions that foreign “illicit actors” had obtained St. Kitts and Nevis passports to evade American sanctions.

The statement said it believed that several Iranian nationals had been issued a St. Kitts and Nevis passport despite government assurances that all Iranian nationals were suspended from participating in the program.

By November, Canada had revoked St. Kitts and Nevis citizens’ right to visa-free travel to the country. And the following month, St. Kitts and Nevis recalled all passports issued without the key information included.

The government of St. Kitts and Nevis did not respond to a request for comment, but recent promotional material for its hurricane relief program said the nation “adhered to the strictest due diligence parameters, ensuring only applicants with the highest moral character need apply.”

Sanders, the Antigua and Barbuda diplomat, criticized St. Kitts and Nevis’ decision to cut the cost of citizenship, claiming his country had little choice but to follow suit.

“We’re depriving ourselves of revenue,” Sanders said, noting that citizenship-by-investment accounts for some 20 percent of Antigua and Barbuda’s GDP. “Dropping prices doesn’t necessarily mean you get more applicants, that’s the gamble that St. Kitts took.”

He added: “This race to the bottom is not good. We don’t have the money to rebuild the place with the speed that the residents would like.”

 

Source: nbcnews.com

The opposition United Progressive Party (UPP) and the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) pilloried Prime Minister Gaston Browne and his administration in their new year messages as they jostle to establish themselves as the saviour of the Antigua and Barbuda people. In what is widely believed to be an election year – the polls are constitutionally due next year – UPP political leader Harold Lovell, and his DNA counterpart, Joanne Massiah, did not mince words in castigating Browne’s stewardship.

Both launched off with recitals of what they termed the government’s failures, particularly on the economic and security fronts. “Many of us are uneasy about the increase in crime, economic stability, erosion of the social safety net and the neglect of our Barbudan brothers and sisters since the passage of Hurricane Irma, almost four months ago,” Lovell said.

He also noted the loss of visa-free access to Canada because of dubious citizenship approvals which he said undermined the integrity of the Citizenship by Investment Programme. “As if these international challenges were not enough to wound our national pride and crush our spirits, citizens and residents are still struggling to come to terms with the 21 murders in 2017, a record number for our peaceful nation.”

According to Lovell, the UPP has developed a 10- point security and crime fighting plan which integrates “community policing, technology and international best practices.” “The UPP has been hard at work. We have taken the time to listen to the people. We have heard your concerns. We have listened to your suggestions. We have done the research and have reviewed international best practices, and we are ready to redeem Antigua and Barbuda, and we will restore pride and prosperity when we form the government again,” Lovell vowed.

Meanwhile, according to Massiah, the poor performance of the Browne administration is well documented.

 

Source: antiguaobserver.com/

The leaders of Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain are meeting in the Italian capital for a fourth meeting of the “Southern Seven”, an initiative launched by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in September 2016.

The group met twice last year, in Lisbon and Madrid.

Issues on the agenda are expected to include the future of the eurozone and efforts to propel growth, employment and investment, as well as preparation for the 2019 European Parliament elections.

But migration is widely expected to top the agenda, according to FRANCE 24’s Tom Kington, reporting from Rome. “It’s not surprising since among the group, we have Spain, Italy and Greece – three countries that have borne the brunt of the large number of migrants sailing to Europe over the last couple of years,” explained Kington. “These countries meeting here in Rome would like to do more to shift the burden of this phenomenon to countries in northern Europe. For example that would involve changing the Dublin Treaty, which is the EU rule that insists on migrants claiming asylum in the countries where they make landfall.”

For Italy, 2017 was a turning point: the country went from large-scale arrivals in the first six months to a sharp drop-off, thanks to controversial agreements in Libya.

Some 119,000 people landed in Italy last year, down 35 percent on 2016.

For its part, Spain saw a notable increase in Algerians and Moroccans sailing in, from 6,000 attempting the crossing in 2016 to nearly 23,000 picked up last year.

In Greece, an accord struck between the EU and Turkey limited the number of arrivals to 28,800 – six times fewer than in 2016 – but it did not solve the problem of caring for those who had already made the journey.

Under pressure

The toll of dead or missing in the Mediterranean dropped from nearly 5,000 during crossings in 2016 to 3,116 in 2017, mostly off the coast of Libya.

But the start of 2018 has seen some grim statistics.

Between 90 and 100 migrants were missing after their makeshift boat sank off Libya, the country’s navy said late Tuesday. Ten migrants also died last weekend and dozens more are missing after their boat sank.

But apart from rescues at sea, asylum applications – and the inevitable delays and lengthy appeals – have placed great strain on some countries.

Greece is struggling to deal with more than 50,000 migrants and refugees, 14,000 of whom are crammed into tents or centres on overcrowded Aegean islands.

In Italy, the authorities have stopped providing details on the number of asylum seekers housed in its reception centres, with the last available figures showing there were nearly 200,000 last spring.

Despite a proliferation of small structures aimed at improving integration, tens of thousands of people are still forced to idle away their days in large centres as a climate of mistrust and racism grows ahead of Italy’s general elections on March 4.

Spain has faced a backlash over the state of the detention centres where migrants are held before being expelled.

Anger was fuelled in December after the suicide of an Algerian who was locked up in a prison in the southern region of Andalusia along with nearly 500 other migrants for lack of space elsewhere.

Humanitarian corridors

The southern European countries have urged time and again for the migrant burden to be shared across the EU.

“Italy can no longer continue to pay for everyone, in financial terms as well as in terms of political effort,” Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said Monday in Brussels.

Interior Minister Marco Minniti – the man behind the Brussels-backed deal with Libya to block migrants from setting out for Europe – has urged the EU to follow Italy’s lead on humanitarian corridors.

Three days before Christmas, Rome welcomed a group of 162 Ethiopian, Somali and Yemeni refugees who flew directly in from crisis-hit Libya.

Some 10,000 refugees are expected to follow in 2018, Minniti said – provided they are spread across the EU.

With France also facing a record increase in asylum applications, the migration issue is also expected to figure at a bilateral meeting Thursday between President Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni.

 

Source: france24.com

The Queen has approved the appointment of Caroline Nokes MP as Minister of State for Immigration at the Home Office.

Responding to her appointment, Immigration Minister Caroline Nokes said:

I am honoured to join the Home Office and excited about gripping the challenges ahead in this crucial period as we prepare to leave the European Union.

As Immigration Minister, I am fully committed to ensuring the UK’s borders remain secure and developing an immigration system that works in the national interest, while continuing to attract those who benefit the country.

I will also build on the positive work this government has already delivered, resettling thousands of the most vulnerable refugees fleeing the Syrian conflict.

 

Source: homeofficemedia.blog.gov.uk

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s name has appeared in an Ecuadorean government database of citizen identification numbers, fuelling speculation that he may have received citizenship from the Andean country.

Assange has been holed up for more than five years in the Ecuadorean embassy in London where he was granted asylum in 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden over rape allegations.

Swedish prosecutors in May dropped their investigation into the rape allegations, but British police have said Assange would still be arrested if he left the embassy.

Reuters found an entry for “Julian Paul Assange” in Ecuador’s Civil Registry, which only includes Ecuadorean citizens. A spokeswoman for the registry declined to comment when asked if Assange had been granted citizenship.

Following reports of the news in Ecuadorean media on Wednesday, Assange tweeted a photo of himself wearing the jersey of Ecuador’s national soccer team. Neither he nor his lawyers responded to requests for comment.

Ecuador’s Foreign Ministry in a statement said it was seeking to resolve Assange’s situation, without making reference to the citizenship issue. The ministry declined further comment.

On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa said Ecuador was exploring mediation to solve the standoff.

Assange, who denies the rape allegations, fears that if he is arrested he will be handed over to the United States to face prosecution over WikiLeaks’ publication of thousands of classified military and diplomatic documents in one of the largest information leaks in U.S. history.

 

Source: reuters.com

Chinese investors are positively smitten by the Greek real estate market and its accompanying Golden Visa program. Investment Migration Insider has previously reported that Chinese nationals account for nearly half of the 2,079 investors who have received a residence permit in Greece in exchange for property acquisition since the program – which has raised €1.5 billion so far – opened in late 2013.

On Wednesday, the Finance Ministry orchestrated the first of a long series of weekly online auctions of foreclosed properties as part of a plan to limit non-performing loans, which amount to some 45 percent of all loans on the books of Greek banks.

“We have buyers who are very interested in Greece’s e-auction process. They believe it will offer opportunities to purchase at the bottom of the market,” Carrie Law, CEO of Juwai.com, China’s largest platform for foreign real estate investment, told Greek Reporter.

“In the third quarter of 2017, Chinese buying inquiries went up 158.5%, compared to the same period in the previous year. Through the second quarter, we had three straight quarters of double-digit growth in Chinese buying inquiries.”

Law attributes the growing interest to the dual attraction of bargain-basement prices and the Golden Visa program.

“In the Juwai.com 2015 Mediterranean Report, we observed that Chinese buyers were holding back and did not yet trust that Greece was on the road to recovery. Now, that sentiment has changed. The belief is that the worst is over. This is a good time to take advantage of the low prices and to benefit from future capital gains as the market recovers,” continued Law.

The CEO also indicated that Greece’s increasing popularity as a residence-by-investment destination among the Chinese is in part due to its relative geographic proximity to China.

“Greece is three or four hours closer by air than Barcelona and Lisbon, two popular cities in other countries that also have appealing investor visas.”

 

Source: imidaily.com